Bruce Hoffman is a professor at Georgetown University and the Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis Visiting Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations. At least two states, Texas and California, have passed laws banning political deepfake videos. Technologically, the U.S. remains a world leader, but China is quickly closing the gap, particularly in the area of AI and other emerging technologies. SIGN UP FOR A CIPHER BRIEF MEMBERSHIP PLAN TO ACCESS EXCLUSIVE CONTENT. Eschatology-based geopolitical analysis is a very old and influential genre in the United States. Get exclusive analysis delivered to your inbox daily. Washington has long worried that the project will make Europe generally and Germany more specifically vulnerable to and overly dependent on Russia. Your comment will be posted pending moderator approval. Globally engaged individuals and organizations join Stratfor Worldview for objective geopolitical intelligence and analysis that reveals the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events. Toward the end of last year, Turkey and Libya signed an accord with Libya’s internationally-recognized government that would create an exclusive economic zone between the southern shore of Turkey in the Mediterranean to the northeastern coast of Libya. Many conservative journalists are ‘informed’ in their political analysis by a certain narrative of how things will pan out near the End Times. Each of these trends presents complex problems for the global community and requires collaboration between states and non-state actors, the public and private sectors, corporations, and civil society organizations. Supply chains will be forced to shift rapidly away from geopolitical hotspots. Public Reports; COVID-19 MAP; log in sign up. Asian conflicts are booming. No ad hominem attacks will be posted. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. Preparedness and comprehensive, systematic risk analysis will be imperative to minimizing losses and maximizing opportunities in 2020. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. Europe´s Leading Geopolitical News Network. Your email address will not be published. But governing won’t be easy for the winner. In a recent phone call, Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both pledged support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. This was the path chosen by Alexander the Great, 328 years before Christ. As such, because of the inadequacy of U.S. laws and regulations coupled with Silicon Valley’s cautious approach, there is a high likelihood that U.S. voters will be exposed to and influenced by political deepfakes during the 2020 election. Delivering Daily Geopolitical News, Intelligence and Risk-Analysis focusing on Political, Regime, Manufacturing, Macroeconomic, Energy, Climate, technology, Cybercrime, Military and Terrorism matters ...GEOPoliticalMatters.com The analysis finds that COVID-19’s impact has had more than one effect: while it gave an opportunity for ... 17 March 2020… If the early 2000s were marked by the global war on terror, the 2010s by post-crisis economic recovery and the rise of populism, the 2020s appear set to become the decade of rage, unrest and shifting geopolitical sands. Middle East Gamechanger? Some of the most pressing issues, including climate change, can only be tackled throughout cooperation and multi-stakeholder buy-in. Simply put, Washington’s appetite to use its military power to influence regional conflicts has waned considerably, although the recent assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani could bring Washington and Tehran into direct conflict in the region. The move is widely believed to be an attempt to block a conglomeration of states—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt—in their quest to streamline gas from the eastern Mediterranean. May 18, 2020 al The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part I (NB: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next report will be published on June 1.) Even so, the common geopolitical threads of a second Trump presidency are actually pretty easy to discern. Many of the protests, particularly those that swept throughout the Middle East, featured external intervention by states working through proxies to affect the outcome of the demonstrations. It is difficult to disaggregate these events, which are shaping their respective countries and challenging existing systems of governance. HSE University is one of the top research universities in Russia. Biotech will become a critical component of national power. More information on this seminar Data will become the new oil. On an international level, there are explicit global security threats posed by deepfakes, including conflict that could spill over from the virtual to the physical world. Required fields are marked *. Executive Seminar 1 The Essentials of Geopolitical Analysis . Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. In this year’s Political Risk Outlook, we kick off by taking a forensic look at the upsurge in civil unrest. African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. Last year alone, the world witnessed protest movements in Algeria, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, France, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia, Sudan, and elsewhere. 2020 is likely to continue a series of historical changes that drive events across different regions of the world. Yet, Twitter has decided only to potentially flag, but not remove, political deepfakes. Both Russia and China welcome recent events and would be content to see the United States forced to expend precious time and finite resources dealing with the fallout with Iran. Within the next decade, China will inevitably eclipse the United States and take over the mantle as the world’s economic engine. Facebook announced last year that it would not remove political ads known to be false. Deepfakes, which is the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven technology to create altered audio and video content to present the audience with a narrative that seems real, are becoming increasingly prevalent and growing more sophisticated. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Politically, the United States’ ability to leverage alliances has diminished, especially as President Trump has publicly questioned the value of institutions like NATO. Skip to content. Europe’s populist parties haven’t thrived amid COVID-19 – but their ideas have. In late 2019, anti-Semitic attacks and acts of vandalism defacing Jewish cemeteries increased, especially in the New York/New Jersey metro area. Twitter, in contrast, has banned political ads. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. An early December shooting targeting Jews at a kosher grocery store in Jersey City by individuals linked to the Black Israelite movement, an anti-Semitic hate group, resulted in five deaths. Geopolitical Predictive Analysis – May 2020 May 20. Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like? Many of these challenges overlap with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. Many of these challenges overlap and interact with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. Over the past few years, terrorism in the United States has been chiefly perpetrated by individuals associated with an anti-Semitic and white supremacist worldview. geopolitical factors were associated with implementation. … Between restrictive immigration policies, diminishing population growth, and China’s significant expenditures in the AI space, 2020 sets up for a year of diminishing U.S. dominance in the technological sector. A Certificate in Geopolitical Analysis can be obtained upon completion of the course. Geopolitics African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. INTRODUCTION For many centuries, Afghanistan has been a natural corridor for conquerors and traders that moved troops or goods from West to East, between Middle East and India, and the other way around. The Soleimani killing greatly increases the chances of war between Washington and Tehran with the Iranians likely to implement a multi-phase approach to reduce American influence in the Middle East, beginning in Iraq. Asian Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global affairs. A range of factors have contributed to these protests, including corruption and inept governance; changing demographics and rapid population growth; incompetent natural resource management; and devastating poverty, marginalization, and inequality. In contrast, the U.S. federal government has yet to dedicate the resources necessary to meet the domestic terrorism challenge. The Battle for Planet Earth is reaching a climax as opposing forces try to use the “coronavirus pandemic” to achieve their agendas. As citizens struggle to transform political systems and demand accountability under the rule of law, many will face authoritarian governments using a combination of brute force and electronic surveillance to maintain a grip on power. He has served as a commissioner on the Independent Commission to Review the FBI’s Post-9/11 Response to Terrorism and Radicalization, a Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the CIA, and an adviser on ... Get a daily rundown of the top security stories delivered to your inbox Monday through Friday with exclusive briefs and columns on what matters most to you and your organization. Early vaccine euphoria is fading as policymakers grapple with resurgent COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe and North America. Many demonstrations retain overwhelmingly parochial characteristics, while some are more regional in scope, and yet others are more global in nature. The U.S. decision to abandon the Kurds, who were instrumental in the fight against ISIS, sent a message to potential future allies that the United States is unreliable. Africa is an immense continent, characterized by deep differences and internal complexity. Beautiful places and people deriving by a wide range of different ethnic groups and tribes. In response to the rising tide, New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio created a special unit within the New York City Police Department to deal with the increasing threat of racially and ethnically motivated extremism (REME). Nine key geopolitical forces will shape global politics in the 2020s: 1. We temporarily stopped using Twitter as an input as of July 3, 2020. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Palma is re-taken by security forces in Mozambique, Peruvians head to the polls, and Russian troops amass near the Ukrainian border. Notes: We identify specific words related to geopolitical risk in general and to our top risks. In 2020, the U.S. Presidential election will be mired in innuendo and false narratives that will make it difficult for the American electorate to divine fact from fiction. To our knowledge, this is the first multi-region analysis of NCD policy implementation covering 78% of UN member states, and the first study to quantitively examine national political characteristics and … We then use text analysis to calculate the frequency of their appearance in the Refinitiv Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. September 16, 2020. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, COVID-19: A ‘Hot Potato’ for Nationalist-Populist Parties in Europe, COVID-19: New Waves Emerge in Europe and North America, Backgrounder: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Rise of a “Drone Superpower?” Turkish Drones Upending Russia’s Near Abroad, Turning Inward: GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds Reinvent Themselves in the COVID Era, EU-China Investment Agreement Casts Europe as a Great Power, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tin Supply & Demand. But how will it affect the Indo-Pacific? At the end of a year in which COVID-19 dominated the headlines, Nigel Gould-Davies, Editor of Strategic Survey 2020, reflects on the geopolitical lessons that should not be ignored in the year of pandemic. racially and ethnically motivated extremism (REME). The most serious threat may be the convergence of ‘deepfake’ technology and analytical tools that mine personal data to identify swing-voters most susceptible to altered videos designed to influence their beliefs. If U.S. global influence ebbs further in 2020, regional powers will continue to edge toward greater economic, political, military, and technological dominance to capitalize upon the United States’ steady decline. Attacks in El Paso, Pittsburgh, and Poway reflected a shift from a domestic threat inspired by Salafi jihadist groups like the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda to one where radicalized individuals take inspiration from Nazi propaganda or disdain for immigrant communities. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Five geopolitical trends to watch closely in the coming year are the continued proliferation of disinformation; rising anti-Semitism and the globalization of anti-Semitism and white supremacy extremism; an international system shifting from unipolar to multipolar; the momentum of worldwide protest movements; and the importance of energy as a significant determinant of states’ foreign and security policies. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. Later in December, in Monsey, New York, an individual with a demonstrated affinity for the Black Israelite movement, carried out a stabbing attack that injured five at a rabbi’s home during Hanukah. Insider Release wanted to analyze the geopolitical situation in … Nord Stream 2 is a $10.5 billion project that will deliver Russian natural gas to Europe through a pipeline being built in the Baltic Sea. The United States recently enacted sanctions targeting the project, including all businesses and individuals involved in the construction of the pipeline. The liberation forces are using the lockdown as an opportunity to arrest senior Khazarian Mafiosi, while the Satanists are hoping to vaccinate and microchip the general public back into submission, multiple sources agree. The Tech Wars: Technology will become a frontline of geopolitical competition. Emerging superpowers and minor states are rewriting the geopolitical balances of the continent. Laws and regulations governing the potential use of deepfakes and fake political advertisements to curry favor with American citizens are virtually non-existent. Moving into 2020, U.S. power has waned considerably. Get exclusive analysis delivered to your inbox daily. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. Dates: will be communicated. The most urgent crisis in 2020 is how the conflict between the United States and Iran unfolds, but each of these trends presents complex challenges for the global community and to deal with effectively, require collaboration between states and non-state actors, the public and private sectors, corporations, and civil society organizations. Five defining elements are reshaping the globe, geopolitics and societies. The second space race will begin. In our geopolitical outlook for 2020,1 our most important issue was the 2020 elections. The most immediate challenge is how the conflict between the United States and Iran unfolds, which is a situation that is likely to drag on for months, if not longer. michael davino 108 Views 2001 Anthrax Terror: The EVENT Used for 2020 Lockdown Tyranny. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … Continue reading "Geopolitical Predictive Analysis – May 2020" refreshing in 5,4,3.. As the United States continues to retrench, it provides an opening to rising powers and near-peer competitors to fill the void, which countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey have eagerly filled. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. InsiderRelease February 2, 2021 4 min read. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.’” InsiderRelease January 31, 2021 3 min read. Ancient Underground Tunnels 2020 Documentary Subterranean Worlds Span The Entire Earth. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Both laws, however, have significant flaws. or would it prove to be a geopolitical game‘-changer’, creating a world profoundly ... we assess how the pandemic has affected previously existing geopolitical trends. Nowadays, from a geopolitical point of view, the main question seems to be how to recognize the actual strategic interests of a country when they are the result of the interdependence between states in the current world order. Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Ryan Bohl, highlights three key geopolitical trends for the coming year. David Knight 446 Views Here’s All The Evidence Of Election Fraud In 2020 We Have So Far - Joe Hoft, Gateway Pundit. Geopolitical tensions increase (Daily analysis 22.05.2020) 22 May 2020 13:21 | Bartosz Grejner China's plans for Hong Kong escalate the already existing serious tension in relations with the US. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States became the world’s dominant power for the better part of three decades. Your email address will not be published. This crisis will sharpen pre-existing tensions between the US and China, rather than radically reshape the regional geopolitical order, explains Lynn Kuok. Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Learn more about The Cipher Brief's Network here. Last week’s brutal Palma attack is fueling concerns of state collapse in northeast Mozambique. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? Many of these challenges overlap and interact with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. Another area where geopolitics and energy security are converging rapidly is in the eastern Mediterranean. CSIS’s Risk and Foresight Group created four plausible, differentiated scenarios to explore the changing geopolitical landscape of 2025-2030, including the potential lasting first- and second-order effects of Covid-19. All of the recent frictions underpinning the US-Philippine alliance are on display in recent attempts to renegotiate the Visiting Forces Agreement. GEOPOLITICS: Eternal Brexit - Analysis By George Friedman posted on September 10, 2020 via GEOPoliticalMatters.com In 2016, the British government called for a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union. This pivot away from traditional alliances and norms will continue to challenge and reshape the existing global order. In general, U.S. presidential elections are geopolitical issues because of America’s hegemonic status. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. As globalization proceeds unabated, authoritarian countries are seeking to harden their borders, even as social media transcends all physical boundaries and influences citizens and populations in different ways. This seminar introduces the main components and methodology of geopolitical analysis and integrates a case study assessment and exercise. GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF AFGHANISTAN (APRIL 2011) 1. “According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on August 23, 2020, ‘For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. *** UPDATES *** November 1 2020: A summer of fighting saw India lose control over about 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of land along the disputed mountainous terrain, according to Indian officials familiar with the situation. Chinese soldiers now prevent Indian patrols in the area *** There are two key regions in Asia – the South China sea and the Himalayas – that will det
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