Future potable water supplies are expected to be adequate to meet future demand on average across the Northeast, but the number of watersheds where demand exceeds supply is projected to increase under most climate change scenarios.302 Studies of specific water systems in the Northeast show mixed results. Fann, N., C. G. Nolte, P. Dolwick, T. L. Spero, A. Curry Brown, S. Phillips, and S. Anenberg, 2015: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030. Hamilton, L. C., C. Brown, and B. D. Keim, 2007: Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies. City of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Climate Action Plan 3.0. The recreation area has been implementing these priorities as part of the recovery process, providing examples of climate adaptation implementation.359,374 The human community on Rockaways peninsula also responded to Sandy by using urban forestry and agricultural practices to recover and to buffer against the impact of future storms (see Building Resiliency at the Rockaways 360 tour375). doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH18, The Northeast region is characterized by four distinct seasons and a diverse landscape that is central to the region’s cultural identity, quality of life, and economic success. Notaro, M., D. Lorenz, C. Hoving, and M. Schummer, 2014: Twenty-first-century projections of snowfall and winter severity across central-eastern North America. Cooley, S. R., J. E. Rheuban, D. R. Hart, V. Luu, D. M. Glover, J. New Hampshire Fish and Game, 2017: Moose research: What's in store for New Hampshire's moose? Bobb, J. F., K. K. L. Ho, R. W. Yeh, L. Harrington, A. Zai, K. P. Liao, and F. Dominici, 2017: Time-course of cause-specific hospital admissions during snowstorms: An analysis of electronic medical records from major hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts. Beck, M. W., K. L. Heck, K. W. Able, D. L. Childers, D. B. Eggleston, B. M. Gillanders, B. Halpern, C. G. Hays, K. Hoshino, T. J. Minello, R. J. Orth, P. F. Sheridan, and M. P. Weinstein, 2001: The identification, conservation, and management of estuarine and marine nurseries for fish and invertebrates: A better understanding of the habitats that serve as nurseries for marine species and the factors that create site-specific variability in nursery quality will improve conservation and management of these areas. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources. Using their knowledge of the Northeast’s landscape and challenges, the CLA and CL used the list of national chapter topics that would be most relevant for the region. Cai, R. H. Byrne, X. Hu, T.-H. Peng, and W.-J. Drayna, P., S. L. McLellan, P. Simpson, S.-H. Li, and M. H. Gorelick, 2010: Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness. A. Hare, A. Himes-Cornell, A. Hollowed, N. J. Mantua, S. McClatchie, M. McClure, M. W. Nelson, K. Osgood, J. O. Peterson, M. Rust, V. Saba, M. F. Sigler, S. Sykora-Bodie, C. Toole, E. Thunberg, R. S. Waples, and R. Merrick, 2016: Climate science strategy of the US National Marine Fisheries Service. Rising, and Paul Wilson, 2015: Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus. Rosenzweig, B., A. L. Gordon, J. Marra, R. Chant, C. . Endocrine disruptors, sometimes also referred to as hormonally active agents, endocrine disrupting chemicals, or endocrine disrupting compounds are chemicals that can interfere with endocrine (or hormonal) systems.These disruptions can cause cancerous tumors, birth defects, and other developmental disorders. Sea level rise has amplified storm impacts in the Northeast region (Key Message 2), contributing to higher surges that extend further inland, as demonstrated in New York City.14,15,16 Sea level rise is leading to an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding, a trend that is projected to grow for cities such as Baltimore and Washington, DC.289 High tide flooding has increased by a factor of 10 or more over the last 50 years for many cities in the Northeast region and will become increasingly synonymous with regular inundation, exceeding 30 days per year for an estimated 20 cities by 2050 even under a very low scenario (RCP2.6).216 More frequent high tide flooding (also referred to as nuisance, or sunny day, flooding) will be experienced at low-elevation cities and towns in the region (Figure 18.9). With little redundancy in their infrastructure and, therefore, limited economic resilience, many rural communities have limited ability to cope with climate-related changes. One example is the Washington, DC, metropolitan area’s potential use of the Potomac and Occoquan estuaries as water supplies and of retired quarries as water storage facilities.304 Adaptive reservoir operations have been implemented in the Northeast and other regions of the United States to better manage plausible future climate conditions and to meet other management goals (Ch. In the small, coastal northeastern state of Rhode Island (population of about 1 million), maximum daily temperatures in the summer have trended upwards over the last 60 years such that Rhode Islanders experienced about three more weeks of uncomfortably hot weather over 2015–2016 than in the 1950s (Figure 18.11, left panel). Kirwan, M. L., S. Temmerman, E. E. Skeehan, G. R. Guntenspergen, and S. Fagherazzi, 2016: Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise. Kopp, R. E., 2013: Does the mid-Atlantic United States sea level acceleration hot spot reflect ocean dynamic variability? These physical changes may lead to large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure; sustaining communities may require significant investment and planning to provide emergency response efforts, a long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and support for relocation. Ezer, T., and L. P. Atkinson, 2014: Accelerated flooding along the U.S. East Coast: On the impact of sea-level rise, tides, storms, the Gulf Stream, and the North Atlantic Oscillations. Colgan, C. S., J. Calil, H. Kite-Powell, D. Jin, and P. Hoagland, 2018: Climate change vulnerabilities in the coastal Mid-Atlantic Region. Over recent decades, the Northeast has experienced an increase of intense precipitation events, particularly in the spring and fall.411 From 1958 to 2016, the number of heaviest 1% precipitation events (that is, an event that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year) in the Northeast has increased by 55%.58 A recent study suggests that this trend began rather abruptly after 1996, though uniformly across the region.411, Urban heating and heat waves threaten the health of the urban population and the integrity of the urban landscape. Larger, often better-resourced communities have created climate offices and programs, while response has lagged in smaller or poorer communities that are often more dependent on county- or state-level programs and expertise. For example, a study of hospitalization for heat-related illness among people with mental health disorders showed increased risk in rural versus urban areas, possibly due to lower availability of mental health services in these rural areas.352, Separately, large population changes from climate-driven human migration could substantially influence both coastal and inland communities in the Northeast region (see also Key Messages 2 and 5).285 The impacts of human migration on health and well-being depend on myriad factors, including the context of the migration.353. Brooks, L., 2008: The Common Pot: The Recovery of Native Space in the Northeast. A. Wilson, 2016: How access to Maine's fisheries has changed over a quarter century: The cumulative effects of licensing on resilience. 2015, Le Bris et al. Cai, W.-J., X. Hu, W.-J. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). Love, R., G. A. Milne, L. Tarasov, S. E. Engelhart, M. P. Hijma, K. Latychev, B. P. Horton, and T. E. Törnqvist, 2016: The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea-level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America. pdf ABSTRACT This article investigates a novel data fusion method to predict clay content and cation exchange capacity using visible near-infrared (visNIR) spectroscopy, portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. Feng, S., and Q. Hu, 2007: Changes in winter snowfall/precipitation ratio in the contiguous United States. In. These risks are exacerbated by increasing demands on these ecosystems to support human use and development. National Trust for Historic Preservation, 2017: Climate and Culture. Hare, J. NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. Cornell University, R2G New York Action Research Initiative, Ithaca, NY. A. Hare, 2015: Long-term changes in the distributions of larval and adult fish in the northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem. Of note, days of moderate heat occur much more often compared to days of extreme heat, such that days of moderate heat may, in aggregate, be associated with a larger number of adverse health events.315 Average summertime temperatures are projected to continue to rise through the end of the century, raising concern about the public health impact of climate change across Northeast communities. Get high-quality papers at affordable prices. Achieving watershed goals would require changes in policies, programs, and/or projects to achieve restoration, sustainability, conservation, and protection goals for the entire system. Applebaum, K. M., J. Graham, G. M. Gray, P. LaPuma, S. A. McCormick, A. Northcross, and M. J. Perry, 2016: An overview of occupational risks from climate change. Download PDF. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, 4 pp. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Washington, DC. It is understood that authors for a regional assessment must have scientific and regional credibility in the topical areas. Castro, K. M., J. S. Cobb, M. Gomez-Chiarri, and M. Tlusty, 2012: Epizootic shell disease in American lobsters Homarus americanus in southern New England: Past, present and future. Hodgkins, G. A., 2013: The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: An example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England. ), competing schools of thought, Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc. Cahoon, D. R., D. J. Reed, A. S. Kolker, M. M. Brinson, J. C. Stevenson, S. Riggs, R. Christian, E. Reyes, C. Voss, and D. Kunz, 2009: Coastal wetland sustainability. Jones, R., C. Travers, C. Rodgers, B. Lazar, E. English, J. Lipton, J. Vogel, K. Strzepek, and J. Martinich, 2013: Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States. For example, when an oyster hatchery in Maine experienced low survival rates of larval oysters following exposure to low pH water during large runoff events, it collaborated with scientists to develop systems to monitor and control carbonate conditions in the facility (Ch. The Northeast’s urban centers and their interconnections are regional and national hubs for cultural and economic activity. 3: Water, KM 2). Marcy, D., W. Brooks, K. Draganov, B. Hadley, C. Haynes, N. Herold, J. McCombs, M. Pendleton, S. Ryan, K. Schmid, M. Sutherland, and K. Waters, 2011: New mapping tool and techniques for visualizing sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts. DC Water, 2018: Clean Rivers Project [web site]. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. Di, J. D. Schwartz, and F. Dominici, 2016: Heat stroke admissions during heat waves in 1,916 US counties for the period from 1999 to 2010 and their effect modifiers. Multiple lines of evidence show that changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation cycles have been observed in the Northeast.3,4,109,110,124,154,158 Projected increases in winter air temperatures under lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)3,4 will result in shorter and milder cold seasons, a longer frost-free season,3 and decreased regional snow cover and earlier snowmelt.108,109,110,395,396,397 Observed seasonal changes to streamflows in response to increased winter precipitation, changes in snow hydrology,112,138,139,140 and an earlier but prolonged transition into spring68 are projected to continue.105, These changes are affecting a number of plant and animal species throughout the region, including earlier bloom times and leaf-out,71,73,158 spawning,164 migration,84,166,398 and insect emergence,74 as well as longer growing seasons,72 delayed senescence, and enhanced leaf color change.103 Milder winters will likely contribute to the range expansion of wildlife and insect species,399 increase the size of certain herbivore populations78 and their exposure to parasitism,81,82 and increase the vulnerability of an array of plant and animal species to change.66,103,143, Warmer winters will likely contribute to declining yields for specialty crops35 and fewer operational days for logging88 and snow-dependent recreation.115,116,118 Excess moisture is the leading cause of crop loss in the Northeast,35 and the observed increase in precipitation amount, intensity, and persistence is projected to continue under both lower and higher scenarios.3,4,124,125, Warmer fall temperatures affect senescence, fruit ripening, migration, and hibernation, but are less well studied in the region98 and must be considered alongside other climatic factors such as drought. Jordan, S. J., J. Stoffer, and J. Keenan, T. F., J. For example, power plants in New York City tend to be located along the coastline for easy access to water for cooling and maritime-delivered fuel and are often located within about 16 feet (5 m) of sea level.59 This is not unusual, as there are many power plants and petroleum storage facilities located along the Northeast coastline.291. There is high confidence that ocean temperatures have caused shifts in the distribution, productivity, and phenology of marine species and very high confidence that high tide flooding and storm surge impacts are being amplified by sea level rise. Kopp, R., R. M. DeConto, D. A. Bader, C. C. Hay, R. Horton, S. Kulp, M. Oppenheimer, D. Pollard, and B. Strauss, 2017: Implications of ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse mechanisms for sea-level projections. 2012305,306,307). Rosenzweig, C., and W. Solecki, 2015: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Introduction. However, it is unclear how society may choose to invest in the built environment, possibly strengthening urban infrastructure to plausible future conditions. Hristov, A. N., A. T. Degaetano, C. A. Rotz, E. Hoberg, R. H. Skinner, T. Felix, H. Li, P. H. Patterson, G. Roth, M. Hall, T. L. Ott, L. H. Baumgard, W. Staniar, R. M. Hulet, C. J. Dell, A. F. Brito, and D. Y. Hollinger, 2017: Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast US and strategies for adaptation. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds to upgrade your browser. Further increases in rainfall intensity are expected,3 with increases in precipitation expected during the winter and spring with little change in the summer.4 Monthly precipitation in the Northeast is projected to be about 1 inch greater for December through April by end of century (2070–2100) under the higher scenario (RCP8.5).4, Studies suggest that Northeast agriculture, with nearly $21 billion in annual commodity sales,122 will benefit from the changing climate over the next half-century35,123 due to greater productivity over a longer growing season (Figure 18.3) (see also Ch. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. 2014, Hondula et al. U.S. For example, health effects of future extreme heat may be exacerbated by future changes in absolute or relative humidity. These risks emerge from accelerated sea level rise as well as increased frequency of coastal and estuarine flooding, intense precipitation events, urban heating and heat waves, and drought. ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR CONCEPTS CONTROVERSIES APPLICATIONS Seventh Edition. A. Nye, K. E. Mills, M. A. Alexander, N. R. Record, R. Weatherbee, and M. Elisabeth Henderson, 2017: Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf. Less distinct seasons with milder winter and earlier spring conditions (very high confidence) are already altering ecosystems and environments (high confidence) in ways that adversely impact tourism (very high confidence), farming (high confidence), and forestry (medium confidence). The adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems and coastal communities will influence ecological and socioeconomic outcomes as climate risks increase (high confidence). Dahl, K. A., M. F. Fitzpatrick, and E. Spanger-Siegfried, 2017: Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045. Waycott, M., C. M. Duarte, T. J. Carruthers, R. J. Orth, W. C. Dennison, S. Olyarnik, A. Calladine, J. W. Fourqurean, K. L. Heck Jr., A. R. Hughes, G. A. Kendrick, W. J. Kenworthy, F. T. Short, and S. L. Williams, 2009: Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems. doi: Kopp, R. E., R. M. Horton, C. M. Little, J. X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer, D. J. Rasmussen, B. H. Strauss, and C. Tebaldi, 2014: Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Walls, 2016: Ch. These shifts have impacted marine fisheries and prompted industry adaptations to changes.155,176,200, Research also shows that sea level rise has been12,46,205,206 and will be higher in the Northeast with respect to the rest of the United States12,249,250,251 due largely to vertical land movement,207,208,209 varying atmospheric shifts and ocean dynamics,210,211,212,213,215,252 and ice mass loss from the polar regions.214 High tide flooding has increased216,402 and will continue to increase,403 and storm surges due to stronger and more frequent hurricanes50,254,255 have been and will be amplified by sea level rise.217,220,221,289 Climate-related coastal impacts on the landscape include greater potential for coastal flooding, erosion, overwash, barrier island breaching and disaggregation, and marsh conversion to open water,12,216,223,226,256,257,258,259,263,279,404 which will directly affect the ability of ecosystems to sustain many of the services they provide. This paper. NCSL, 2016: Federal and State Recognized Tribes (Updated October 2016). West, J. J., S. J. Smith, R. A. Silva, V. Naik, Y. Zhang, Z. Adelman, M. M. Fry, S. Anenberg, L. W. Horowitz, and J.-F. Lamarque, 2013: Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health. Gledhill, D. K., M. M. White, J. Salisbury, H. Thomas, I. Mlsna, M. Liebman, B. Mook, J. Grear, A. C. Candelmo, R. C. Chambers, C. J. Gobler, C. W. Hunt, A. L. King, N. N. Price, S. R. Signorini, E. Stancioff, C. Stymiest, R. A. Wahle, J. D. Waller, N. D. Rebuck, Z. Petkova, E. P., R. M. Horton, D. A. Bader, and P. L. Kinney, 2013: Projected heat-related mortality in the U.S. urban northeast. Warming rates on the Northeast Shelf have been higher than experienced in other ocean regions,39 and climate projections indicate that warming in this region will continue to exceed rates expected in other ocean regions.48,49 Multiple lines of research have shown that changes in ocean temperatures and acidification have resulted in distribution,7,8,10 productivity,39,173,191,401 and phenology shifts155,158,163,164,166 in marine populations. Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, Arlington, VA, 438 pp. Warming ocean temperatures (high confidence), acidification (high confidence), and sea level rise (very high confidence) will alter coastal and ocean ecosystems (likely) and threaten the ecosystems services provided by the coasts and oceans (likely) in the Northeast. In coastal areas, partnerships among local communities and federal and state agencies leverage federal adaptation tools and decision support frameworks (for example, NOAA’s Digital Coast, USGS’s Coastal Change Hazards Portal, and New Jersey’s Getting to Resilience). This Key Message does not address trends into the future, and therefore likelihood is not applicable. These maps show projected shifts in the date of the last spring freeze (left column) and the date of the first fall freeze (right column) for the middle of the century (as compared to 1979–2008) under the lower scenario (RCP4.5; top row) and the higher scenario (RCP8.5; middle row). The Northeast has long been losing residents to other regions of the country.57 Droughts and flooding can adversely affect ecosystem function, farm economic viability, and land use. Hagenstad, M., E. Burakowski, and R. Hill, 2018: The economic contributions of winter sports in a changing climate. Demaria, E. M. C., J. K. Roundy, S. Wi, and R. N. Palmer, 2016: The effects of climate change on seasonal snowpack and the hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States. 28: Adaptation). Northeastern cities, with their abundance of concrete and asphalt and relative lack of vegetation, tend to have higher temperatures than surrounding regions due to the urban heat island effect (increased temperatures, typically measured during overnight periods, in highly urbanized areas in comparison to outlying suburban, exurban, and rural locations). Warmer winters will likely contribute to earlier insect emergence74 and expansion in the geographic range and population size of important tree pests such as the hemlock woolly adelgid, emerald ash borer, and southern pine beetle.75,76,77 Increases in less desired herbivore populations are also likely, with white-tailed deer and nutria (exotic South American rodents) already being a major concern in different parts of the region.78 According to State Farm Insurance,79 motorists in West Virginia and Pennsylvania are already the first and third group of claimants most likely to file an insurance claim that is deer-related.
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